Rudolf Brázdil Christian Pfister Prof. Rudolf Brázdil Institute of Geography Masaryk University Czech Republic Prof. Christian Pfister Institute of History - NCCR Climate University of Bern Switzerland If you would like to interview one of these scientists, please contact Leah Christen. > biographical information > abstract > paper

Biographical Information:

Rudolf Brázdil (54) is a professor of physical geography in the Masaryk University of Brno, the Czech Republic. He is doing research in instrumental and historical climatology with a special attention to climate variability and change as well as to climatic anomalies and weather extremes. In 1985, 1988 and 1990, he participated in polar expeditions to Spitsbergen. In 1992/1993, he was an invited professor at the ETH Zürich, Switzerland. He is a chairman of the Czech National Geographic Committee and a full member of the Commission on Climatology of the International Geographical Union.

Christian Pfister (60) is a professor of economic, social and environmental history at the University of Bern, Switzerland. He investigates interactions of societies with their environment in Europe over the last 350 years. A particular focus is put on weather perception in and climate impacts on pre-industrial societies. He was among the founding members of the European Society for Environmental History (ESEH) and its first vice-president.

Abstract:

Human impacts of climate anomalies and weather disasters during the past millennium in Central Europe: Learning from the past

Humans and their economy were always sensitive to climate anomalies and to the frequency and severity of weather disasters. Three main climatic periods are distinguished in the past millennium: Medieval Warm Epoch (up to 13th century), Little Ice Age (AD 1300-1860), Recent Global Warming (after AD 1860). Each of these periods experienced significant cold and warm, wet and dry anomalies and changeable weather disasters with different frequency and severity. Prior to the existence of a global network of cheap transportation, weather-related crop failures were the greatest risk in pre-industrial societies. Very high grain prices as the basic indicator of well-being conditioned significant crises. Many of them (1570/71, 1627/28,1693/93, 1770/71,1816/17) were connected to conjunctions of cold springs and wet mid-summers, which affected both the quality and the quantity (i.e., the content of nutrients) of the major food staples. Crisis mortality was rather due to a weakening of the immune system against epidemics than to outright starvation.

Chroniclers deliberately put a focus on memorable extreme events that affected the amount and the quality of crops. From the 12th century, climatic events were increasingly described with reference to the natural sphere of causation. On the other hand, the meaning attributed to the events basically remained in the cultural sphere of causation. In the Christian world, the weather was seen as God’s birch for whipping humans when he was angry. Another interpretation blamed witches for the occurrence of extreme events what was a basis for witch-hunts.

Industrial societies are rather sensitive to interruptions of transport lines or to drought related slow-downs of the energy or water supply. Their more and more complex structure increases losses related to anomalies and weather disasters and future climate change can enhance this tendency. The knowledge from the past is helpful for better understanding of future human impacts of climatic anomalies and weather disasters.

Paper:

Human Impacts of Climate Anomalies and Weather Disasters During the Past Millennium in Central Europe: Learning from the Past

What are contemporary and past interactions between climatic variation and human society?
Climate history and human history are usually written separately. Many historians understand history as being limited to an account of what man does to mankind. The history of climate aims at reconstructing average temperature and precipitation during the past. However, humans and their economy are rather sensitive to the frequency and severity of extremes. It means that climate reconstruction should focus upon those conditions which are known to have interfered with the routines of everyday life. Prior to the existence of a global network of cheap transportation, weather-related crop failures were the greatest risk. Industrial societies are rather sensitive to interruptions of transport lines or to drought related slow-downs of the energy or water supply.

How were climate anomalies and weather disasters changing during the past millennium?
Three main climatic periods are distinguished in the past millennium: Medieval Warm Epoch (MWE – up to 13th century), Little Ice Age (LIA – AD 1300-1860), Recent Global Warming (RGW – after AD 1860). Each of these periods experienced significant cold and warm, wet and dry anomalies and changeable weather disasters with different frequency and severity. With regard to the LIA a greater frequency of cold and dry spells in the winter half year is documented for Central Europe. Superposed on this long-term trend of frequent severe cold spells during the winter half-year were incidental small clusters of wet and chilly mid-summers.

How changed the perception of climate anomalies and weather disasters?
Chroniclers deliberately put a focus on memorable extreme events which affected the amount and the quality of crops. From the 12th century climatic events were increasingly described with reference to the natural sphere of causation. On the other hand, the meaning attributed to the events basically remained in the cultural sphere of causation. In the Christian world the weather was seen as God’s birch for whipping humans when he was angry (Fig. 1). Another interpretation blamed witches for the occurrence of extreme events resulting in the setting up processions or witch-hunts. On the other hand, climate events per se were portrayed in quasi objective terms. Yardsticks in the natural world such as the blossoming of plants were increasingly included into the reports.

Which were the most disastrous weather impacts in Central Europe?
The grain price was the basic indicator of well being. in pre-industrial societies. Crises stand out in terms of price peaks in the series. Many of them (1570/71, 1627/28,1693/93, 1770/71,1816/17) were connected to conjunctions of cold springs and wet mid-summers. Such conditions affected both the quality and the quantity (i.e., the content of nutrients) of the major food staples. Crisis mortality was rather due to a weakening of the immune system against epidemics than to outright starvation. For example, 10% of the Bohemian population died as a consequence of the crisis in 1770-1771 (Fig. 2).

What is the learning from the past for the present time?
The RGW period is supposed to be characterised be increased number and severity of anomalies and weather disasters, i.e. protection and saving activities should have very high priority in the future. The knowledge from the past is helpful for better understanding of these processes with respect to changes in seasonality, frequency, severity, causes and impacts of climatic anomalies and weather disasters.

Figure 1. Relics of Saint Narcisus, the first bishop of Girona (NE Spain), which were used in standardized liturgical actions to cope with situations resulting from climatic stress (extremely wet or dry anomalies).

Figure 2. Dramatic increase in mortality in Bohemia and Moravia (the Czech Republic) in the period 1760-1780 (100 = average of 1760-1780) as the consequence of the 1770-1771 crisis.