Frank Hole Prof. Frank Hole Department of Anthropology Yale University USA If you would like to interview this scientist, please contact Leah Christen. > biographical information > abstract > paper

Biographical Information:

I received my doctorate in Anthropology from the University of Chicago. Currently, I am C. J. MacCurdy Professor of Anthropology at Yale University and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. My principal archaeological research has been on the origins of agriculture and the subsequent development of agrarian societies in the Near East. My early work in Iran established one of the main developmental sequences for agriculture, from the ninth millennium B.C., and my recent research in Syria has extended the temporal range into the modern era. As a member of an interdisciplinary team in the Center for Earth Observation at Yale, I have carried out a number of land-use change studies using time-series satellite image analysis and ground truth observations in Syria. Results have been presented at meetings of the American Geophysical Union, Geological Society of America, NASA (Land Cover Land Use Change), and IGBP.

Abstract:

Sustainability in the Period of Agriculture: The Near Eastern Case

Agriculture began in the eastern Mediterranean Levantine Corridor about 11,000 years ago toward the end of the Younger Dryas when aridity had greatly diminished wild food resources. During the subsequent Climatic Optimum, agricultural villages spread rapidly but climatic changes on centennial-millennial scales resulted in striking oscillations in settlement in marginal areas. Natural climate changes thus alternately enhanced and diminished the agricultural potential of the land. Growing populations and more intensive land use, both for agriculture and livestock, led to changes in the structure of vegetation, hydrology, and land quality. Over the millennia, political and economic interventions, warfare and incursions by nomadic herding tribes all impacted sustainability of agriculture and the ability of the land to support its populations. In much of the region today, agricultural land use is not sustainable given existing technology and national priorities. The Near Eastern case is instructive because of the quality of information, the length of the record and the pace of change.

The modern era is one of unprecedented change in size of populations, agricultural technology, economic forces and technological interventions. In the last half century, the building of dams and canals for irrigation, the mechanization of agriculture, and the introduction of diesel pumps to extract ground water, enabled the spread of agriculture into marginal zones and allowed double cropping, with loss of fallow, in the better zones. While expansion proceeds in some zones, abandonment occurs in others as the ground water is depleted, salts cake the surface, and blowing dust buries fields and settlements following destruction of native land cover. In many places, degradation is effectively irreversible. Sustainability will require elimination of destructive practices, implementation of efficient water distribution, development of more suitable crops, political and demographic stability, and pragmatic planning.

Paper:

Sustainability in the Period of Agriculture: The Near Eastern Case

The Age of Agriculture
Our hominid ancestors lived for some four million years as hunters and collectors of wild plant foods before they adopted agriculture about 11,000 years ago. The Period of Agriculture began in the Levantine Corridor, a narrow stretch of land that lies between the Mediterranean Sea and the inland desert steppe. Within a few thousand years agriculture had emerged independently or spread throughout the world and today sustains some six billion people.

Vulnerability, Resilience and Sustainability
Humans, individually and in groups have always been vulnerable to natural hazards, including starvation. Through technology and economic forces, society has reduced vulnerability and met many of the climatic and other challenges to agricultural sustainability. This adaptive resilience is a product of human ingenuity that has molded nature to society’s needs. We sometimes forget, however, that the natural environment is also vulnerable and can be depleted beyond recovery. While people have been successful in sustaining agriculture through the use of ever more intensive methods of cultivation, there are serious doubts about the limits of this approach. Can the predictable strains on agricultural systems, let alone unknown future strains, be similarly overcome and the viability of our food resources sustained for another 11,000 years?

Natural Climatic Cycles
Agriculture was born in a period of rapid and dramatic climatic and atmospheric changes that impacted humans and the biomass that sustains terrestrial life. Periodic fluctuations since then have had wide-ranging and sometimes global effects that tested the resilience of agricultural systems and sometimes resulted in the collapse of civilizations.

Human-induced Environmental Changes
Alteration of the land through plowing, grazing, fuel collecting and the redistribution of surface water have transformed biodiversity and even landforms throughout the Near East. Warfare, forced settlement, and onerous taxation have plagued much of the region since history began and resulted either in the expansion of agricultural settlements or the advance of nomadic pastoralists onto abandoned land.

The Khabur Basin of Northeastern Syria: A Case Study
Most of the Khabur region is marginal for agriculture because of low winter precipitation and its large variability from year to year. Archaeological, historic and modern sources, such as satellite imagery, reveal cycles of prosperity and abandonment of settlements in the Khabur since the establishment of agriculture. Throughout history there have been relatively short periods of intensive use and longer periods of “fallow” that allowed regeneration of vegetation and soil. These cycles resulted from a combination of natural climatic changes and political and economic policies. The last hundred years have seen unprecedented exploitation of the land and resulted in deleterious changes that cannot easily be reversed. For further details, see http://www.yale.edu/ceo/Projects/swap.html.

Another 11,000 Years of Agriculture?
The limits of “traditional” agriculture in the Near East have been reached; rather than expansion there is now contraction as water has become a limiting factor and no productive virgin lands remain. The Khabur population grew seven-fold over the last 25 years, and continues to grow at a rate that cannot be sustained by local agricultural resources. Because of stress on water and land resources, the agricultural system cannot sustain a policy of maximizing production. New technology, including efficient irrigation methods, the use of suitable crops—and perhaps genetically modified crops that require less water—may stave off potential collapse from over-exploitation. Equally important will be planning taking into account both social and environmental needs, rather than just reaction to impending problems. Moreover, unless the nations of the region can work together on comprehensive and fair allocation of resources, the result of each country’s planning and developing its strategies in isolation will continue to emphasize short-term returns and sacrifice long-term sustainability.